Navigating the Future of Global Aviation: Is Nigeria Ready for the Next Leap?

The aviation sector has experienced remarkable changes over the last hundred years. It all began with the groundbreaking achievement of powered flight, which established the foundation for future advancements. Following this, airplanes were designed to fly faster than ever, continually pushing the boundaries of speed. Eventually, the focus shifted to extending flight distances, connecting remote parts of the world, and making global travel more accessible.

 

The adoption of new developments in engineering and design made it possible to manage much bigger aircraft capable of airlifting hundreds of passengers and large amounts of cargo. The industry is active today, with over 100,000 commercial flights taking off and landing worldwide daily, matching more than 400 departures each hour.

 

This swift development and innovation have made aviation a leader in safety and dependability, mirroring years of committed research, technological upgrades, and strict regulations. Consequently, this transportation method enables travel and facilitates worldwide connections, trade, and cultural exchange in unthinkable ways. Current estimates from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) show that the demand for air transport is forecasted to increase at an average rate of 4.3% per annum over the next twenty years. Should this growth path be achieved, the air transport sector is expected to produce approximately 15.5 million direct jobs and contribute $1.5 trillion to the global GDP.

 

The Nigerian aviation industry has also witnessed some level of growth in passenger traffic and flight and is expected to continue growing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, In 2021, the number of domestic and international passengers in Nigeria increased by 43.41% and 57.61%, respectively, compared to 2020. Statista also forecasted that the flight market in Nigeria will grow at a rate of 10.19% annually, reaching a revenue of $1.75 billion in 2025.

 

 

The number of users in the flight market is also expected to reach 25.73 million by 2029. Whilst these are interesting developments in Nigeria’s aviation space, we still have a long way to go in meeting global standards. Let us examine some of the latest developments that are influencing the aviation sector and examine Nigeria’s readiness for the next leap.

 

1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

One of the most encouraging advancements in aviation is Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). This type of liquid fuel is currently used in commercial aviation and has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by 80%. SAF is produced from a variety of feedstocks, including waste oils and fats, green waste, municipal waste and non-food crops.

 

United Airlines utilises sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which has demonstrated the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 85% over its entire lifecycle compared to traditional jet fuel. This assessment encompasses all phases, including production, delivery, and usage. However, there is still considerable room for improvement, as SAF currently constitutes only 0.1% of the airline’s total fuel consumption. Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 presents a significant challenge ahead.

 

In Nigeria, acceptance of SAF is in its early stages. The country’s high reliance on oil and the lack of appropriate infrastructure for the manufacturing and distribution of SAF pose critical challenges to progress in this area. However, Nigeria has registered significant improvements in several other areas. For example, reducing the carbon footprint of aviation activities has become one of the country’s foremost objectives. This is in line with various initiatives that aim to improve fuel use efficiency and diversify energy sources.

 

2. Electric and Hybrid-Electric Aircraft

These innovative solutions aim to significantly decrease the aviation industry’s dependence on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The aircraft utilises electric propulsion systems, which can be either fully electric or hybrid. This represents a shift from traditional methods, enabling a more efficient and environmentally friendly flying experience.

 

Harbour Air, recognised as the second-largest water-based airline globally, manages a fleet of 45 floatplanes and has initiated a project focusing on an all-electric aircraft. This endeavour garnered international attention in December 2019 when Harbour Air achieved a historic milestone by conducting the first electric passenger flight.

 

Nigeria is far behind in deploying electric and hybrid aircraft due to unreliable power supply, inadequate infrastructure and limited investment in advanced aviation technology. The country’s electricity grid struggles with frequent outages, making it difficult to support the charging and maintenance of electric aircraft. Without substantial improvements in energy infrastructure, regulatory framework and technological capabilities, Nigeria cannot incorporate electric and hybrid aircraft into its aviation industry.

 

3. Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is about using small automated planes to move passengers and cargo at lower heights, mainly in cities and nearby areas. This new way of travel aims to ease city traffic issues by offering a different option to regular ground transport. UAM systems are made to work in crowded places and use advanced technology like vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), self-navigation, and electric power. By adding these planes to current transport systems, UAM could improve travel, cut down on time, and lower pollution, changing how people and items get around in cities.

 

In 2022, Volocopter led the way in commercial Urban Air Mobility, marking a significant change that made air travel a key part of city life. This was done with the launch of the certified VoloCity passenger air taxis, which excel in quiet operation, safety, zero-emissions, and faster travel, making them better than other city transport options for getting passengers where they need to go. The Volocopter 2X has conducted several test flights, including a public flight in Stuttgart, Germany, and a test flight over Singapore’s Marina Bay.

 

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) would be a perfect solution to the acute traffic problem experienced in Nigeria, especially in Lagos and Abuja. These metropolitan areas suffer from terrible traffic conditions that waste time and reduce city dwellers’ productivity. The emergence of air taxis alongside drone technology to ferry goods and passengers could go a long way in addressing this challenge.

 

For UAM to be successfully adopted in Nigeria, urgent and important challenges must be tackled. These involve the formulation of sound regulatory policies that are clear concerning the issues of safety and efficiency and substantial capital outlay in deploying the requisite infrastructure, which in this case include vertiports for takeoffs and landings, navigation systems, and air traffic management. Once these barriers are surmounted, Nigeria is in a good position to be the spearhead of modern urban transportation systems.

 

4. Smart Airports and Biometrics

A “Smart” airport leverages state-of-the-art technologies to improve operations, enhance safety procedures, elevate passenger experiences, and ensure sustainability and environmental stewardship. This innovative system combines various technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), advanced data analytics, and automated systems.

 

Concerning operational efficiency, AI algorithms can examine flight data and manage air traffic more efficiently, reducing delays and fostering effective communication between airlines and air traffic control. The IoT connects various devices and systems throughout the airport, from baggage handling to security screenings, allowing immediate tracking and quick responses to any issues.

 

In 2018, Singapore Changi Airport maintained its position as the world’s leading airport for the sixth successive year. Terminal 4, completed in 2017, was designed to redefine the travel experience, boasting an annual passenger carrying capacity 16 million. The terminal prioritised passenger comfort, particularly in processes such as bag drop, airside clearance, passport control, and boarding.

 

Nigeria has made great strides in modernising its airport facilities, especially at major airports like Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos and Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja. However, a smart airport with full integration of biometrics, machine learning, and IoT is still a work in progress. The nation’s preparedness to adopt smart airport technologies remains constrained by cybersecurity and data privacy regulation challenges as well as the critical power and digital infrastructure issue.

 

Key Challenges Facing Nigeria’s Aviation Sector

 

Nigeria’s aviation sector has immense potential. Yet, it faces significant challenges that must be addressed to ensure sustainable growth. As the industry evolves, driven by new technologies and government policies, there is a growing need for innovative solutions to navigate these challenges and unlock the full potential of Nigeria’s aviation sector.

 

Below are some of the foremost challenges of the sector:

1. Inadequate Infrastructure at Airports: Many facilities are outdated, poorly maintained, and suffer from limited capacity at major airports, leading to frequent flight delays and cancellations. These factors adversely affect customer satisfaction and diminish the sector’s overall efficiency.
2. Scarcity of Aviation Fuel: The scarcity of aviation fuel and elevated operational costs present considerable obstacles for airlines. The volatile pricing of aviation fuel, alongside high taxes and the devaluation of the naira, complicates the ability of airlines to maintain competitive pricing structures. Numerous airlines have faced difficulties in achieving profitability, resulting in some reducing their flight routes or suspending operations altogether due to escalating costs.
3. Regulatory and Governance Framework: The sector’s regulatory and governance framework remain the subject of concern. While the NCAA has made strides in implementing international safety standards, there remains an urgent need for more consistent oversight, enhanced transparency, and effective policymaking. The complexity of the regulatory environment poses challenges for both domestic and foreign airlines, subsequently stifling potential investments in the aviation sector.
4. Financial Challenges: Exorbitant charges and trapped foreign airline revenues seem to be damaging the country’s image. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) at different fora in Africa made it known that trapped airline revenue in Nigeria was one of the highest in the world. At its peak in June 2023, Nigeria’s funds amounted to $850 million, but as of April 2024, 98% of these funds have been cleared. The remaining payment is due to the Central Bank’s ongoing verification of outstanding forward claims filed by the commercial banks. However, the recent report from CBN stated that all outstanding payments to foreign airlines have been cleared.
5. Proliferation of Government Agencies: The proliferation of government agencies with overlapping functions is a major factor responsible for exorbitant charges for services and businesses in the aviation industry and other sectors of the economy.
6. Flight Delay and Cancellation: One significant factor diminishing the enjoyment of air travel is the prevalence of flight delays and cancellations, coupled with airlines’ general indifference toward the rights of their passengers.
7. Cybersecurity and Data Privacy: The nation’s preparedness to adopt smart airport technologies remains constrained by cybersecurity and data privacy regulation challenges and the critical power and digital infrastructure issue.

 

Transformative Innovations Redefining the Future of Aviation in Nigeria

Despite existing challenges, innovation is set to play a critical role in shaping the future of aviation in Nigeria. Some of the recent innovations in the sector are:

1. Technological Advancements: Technological advancements enhance operational efficiency within the industry as numerous airlines embrace digital ticketing, booking, and customer service platforms. This transition towards digitisation not only improves the customer experience but also facilitates a reduction in operational costs for airlines. The new International Smart Terminal Building being constructed at the Victor Attah International Airport in Akwa Ibom State is set to be an aviation game changer in Nigeria.

Exploration of new technologies related to aviation safety and air traffic management is underway. The Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) is actively modernising its air traffic control systems, which is expected to lead to enhanced safety and more effective management of Nigeria’s increasingly congested airspace. Such technological advancements are particularly essential, given the rising number of flights driven by increasing domestic demand and the expansion of international routes.

2. Development of New Airport Terminals: The development of new airport terminals and the expansion of existing facilities signify substantial progress. For instance, the recently completed terminal at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja is part of a broader initiative to upgrade Nigeria’s aviation infrastructure. These expansions are designed to enhance capacity, improve the passenger experience, and elevate the competitiveness of Nigerian airports on the global stage.
3. Establishment of Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Facilities: The government has prioritised the establishment of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities within Nigeria. Nigerian airlines are required to send their aircraft abroad for maintenance, a process that incurs substantial costs and requires significant time. By developing MRO facilities domestically, the government intends to decrease costs for airlines and generate employment opportunities within the aviation sector.
4. The Cape Town Convention: Nigeria’s global aviation rating improved significantly, rising from 49 to 70.5 after the country fully complied with the Cape Town Convention on dry aircraft leasing. The Aviation Working Group, co-chaired by major industry leaders Boeing and Airbus, announced this increase in September 2024.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s compliance score rose to 75.5 after preparing and signing the Practice Direction. This new directive provides legal support for lessors, allowing them to repossess their aircraft from Nigerian carriers in non-compliance with lease agreements, with the backing of the Nigerian courts.

5. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): There is also an increased focus on PPPs to facilitate infrastructure development. Several airports are undergoing privatisation efforts, allowing private investors to participate in modernising and managing critical airport facilities. This approach has the potential to enhance operational efficiency and service delivery while alleviating the financial burden on the government.

 

Conclusion

Nigeria’s aviation industry is at a crossroads. It can quickly modernise and incorporate global trends while also indirectly addressing or merely avoiding some local challenges. This provides an opportunity to adopt innovations like sustainable aviation fuel, electric Aircraft, urban air mobility and new smart airport technologies. But for Nigeria to harness these benefits, it must make significant investments in requisite infrastructure, develop broad regulatory frameworks, and embrace technologies that are reshaping the global aviation industry.

 

The journey to achieving these ambitious goals will likely be fraught with roadblocks, such as funding constraints and regulatory hurdles. However, with proper foresight and global collaboration, Nigeria is on its way to becoming a regional aviation powerhouse that supports the evolution of aviation in Africa. This transformation would improve connectivity, boost the economy, and serve as an example of sustainable aviation practices in the region.

 

At pcl.’s Aviation Centre of Excellence (ACoE), we provide cutting-edge solutions, insights, and strategies tailored to address the aviation sector’s unique challenges. Contact us via enquiry@phillipsconsulting.net for further enquiries.

 

Written by:

Onesimus Ocheho

Senior Digital Learning Advisor